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jeudi 8 avril 2010

Nucléaire iranien : récapitulatif des derniers développements

Déniché sur le site du New-York Times, voici un petit récapitulatif des derniers événements survenus dans le cadre de la question nucléaire iranienne depuis la reprise des négociations en octobre dernier entre la république islamique et le groupe des 5+1.

April 2, 2010 Iran continues to send conflicting signals over possible nuclear negotiations. On Thursday Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Tehran remains open to a fuel swap, while Iran’s top nuclear negotiator said Friday new sanctions would only deepen Iranian intransigence on the issue. — The Council on Foreign Relations

April 1, 2010 After months of resisting the idea of new Security Council sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, the Chinese government appears to have taken a step closer to supporting them, agreeing to enter negotiations over the language of a new resolution to intensify international pressure on Iran. — NYT

March 29, 2010 Six months after the revelation of a secret nuclear enrichment site in Iran, international inspectors and Western intelligence agencies say they suspect that Tehran is preparing to build more sites in defiance of United Nations demands. — NYT

March 25, 2010 Russia disclosed that Russian and Chinese envoys had pressed Iran’s government to accept a United Nations plan on uranium enrichment during meetings in Tehran early this month but that Iran had refused. — NYT

March 19, 2010 Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Russia’s foreign minister clashed publicly over an announcement that Russia would complete a nuclear power plant in Iran this summer. — NYT

March 17, 2010 Ahead of talks in Beijing with Chinese leaders, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the five permanent members of the UN Security Council were in agreement on how to tackle the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, suggesting that China was growing more concerned about Iran's intentions. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

March 11, 2010 Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told the royal family of Saudi Arabia that the United States wanted to help build up the kingdom’s military defenses against the growing threat of Iran, but also needed its help in pressing for new United Nations sanctions on Tehran. — NYT

March 7, 2010 An analysis of federal records, company reports and other documents shows that both the Obama and Bush administrations have sent mixed messages to the corporate world when it comes to doing business in Iran, rewarding companies whose commercial interests conflict with American security goals. — NYT

March 4, 2010 The U.S. is circulating a draft of new, tougher sanctions against Iran that would both broaden the scope and intensify three previous rounds of sanctions enacted in an effort to persuade Iran to halt uranium enrichment and negotiate the future of its nuclear development program. — NYT

Feb. 27, 2010 The mystery of why Iran moved nearly its entire stockpile of low-enriched nuclear fuel to an above-ground plant is the subject of fervent debate among many who are trying to decode Iran’s intentions. — NYT

Feb. 11, 2010 Speaking on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, which toppled Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran was a "nuclear state," declaring that Iranian scientists had, for the first time, processed uranium to a level of 20 percent enrichment. Although his claims could not be independently verified, Western experts have said that Iran could theoretically move relatively quickly toward the manufacture of weapons-grade fuel, usually reckoned at 90 percent. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Feb. 9, 2010 Iran told the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency that it would begin enriching its stockpile of uranium for use in a medical reactor, prompting officials from the United States, France and Russia to call for stronger sanctions against Tehran. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Feb. 3, 2010 Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to back a dormant proposal to send the bulk of Iran's enriched uranium abroad, only weeks after rejecting the UN-brokered deal. Meanwhile, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair says Iran's technical advancement in enrichment-related activities strengthens judgments in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that Iran is "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons," but it remains unclear whether Tehran will eventually decide to do so. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jan. 28, 2010 A day after President Obama warned Iran’s leaders of the external pressures they face if they fail on their nuclear obligations, Iran experts are offering their views on the country’s domestic turmoil. At bitterlemons-international.org, Iran scholars ponder the year ahead for leaders in Tehran. Reformist cleric Mehdi Karroubi, meanwhile, predicts Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government will not finish its four-year term. — The Council on Foreign Relations

Jan. 28, 2010 With President Barack Obama warning Iran and North Korea of increased isolation in his first State of the Union address, the United States will reportedly present the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, a list of Iranian individuals and firms to target with sanctions. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel signals support for broad-based sanctions as Siemens, Europe’s biggest engineering conglomerate, announced an end to business with Iran. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jan. 20, 2010 With Washington preoccupied by health care reform, Haiti, and the Massachusetts Senate race, three significant developments on the Iran nuclear issue have gone largely unnoticed: the six major powers failed to agree on a new round of sanctions instead, a German company agreed to a massive new contract with Iran and Tehran formally rejected the International Atomic Energy Agency’s nuclear fuel deal.—William Tobey, Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. — NYT

Jan. 18, 2010 After sending a lower-ranking representative to talks between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, China vetoed a fourth round of sanctions against Iran's disputed nuclear activites. Iran, meanwhile, hailed the indecision over further sanctions as a sign of "rationality." — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jan. 15, 2010 Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says the mysterious killing of a scientist illustrates efforts by Iran's enemies "to strike a blow at the scientific movement of the country." But the assassination has raised more questions than answers. — The Council on Foreign Relations

Jan. 12, 2010 The United States will meet with other UN Security Council members and Germany in New York later this week to discuss possible new sanctions over Iran's contested nuclear program. Some analysts argue tougher financial sticks are needed to force Iran's hand. — The Council on Foreign Relations

Jan. 11, 2010 Politico's Laura Rozen reports that the United States is continuing negotiations with Iran over a nuclear fuel swap, despite the expiration of the end-of-year deadline for a deal set by President Barack Obama. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jan. 8, 2010 Days after Taiwan indicated it had called off a probe into reports that local companies sold nuclear technology to Iran, the head of a Taiwanese company said he received an order from a Chinese firm to procure nuclear dual-use pressure transducers, which were then shipped to Iran, presumably for use in Iran's gas centrifuge program. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jan. 6, 2010 The Institute for Science and International Security, which assisted the Times of London in analyzing a secret memo believed to describe Iran's plans to test a key component of a nuclear bomb, has updated its assessment and offers new questions on the document's authenticity. — The Council on Foreign Relations

Jan. 6, 2010 China's ambassador to the United Nations, Zhang Yesui, rules out new sanctions aimed at pressuring Iran to halt its disputed nuclear activities, dampening hopes for a swift agreement in the UN Security Council on a fourth sanctions resolution until March at the earliest. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jan. 6, 2010 Over the past decade, Iran has quietly hidden an increasingly large part of its atomic complex in networks of tunnels and bunkers across the country. — NYT

Jan. 4, 2010 French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner rejects Iran's counterproposal to a deal brokered by the United Nations to swap Iran's low-enriched uranium for nuclear fuel, saying that Iran was trying to "side-step" the issue. — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jan. 2, 2010 As President Obama faces pressure to back up his year-end ultimatum for diplomatic progress with Iran, the administration says that domestic unrest and signs of unexpected trouble in Tehran’s nuclear program make its leaders particularly vulnerable to strong and immediate new sanctions. — NYT

Jan. 2, 2010 Iran’s foreign minister warned the West that it had one month to accept Iran’s counterproposal to a deal brokered by the United Nations aimed at slowing the Iranian nuclear program, or else Iran would begin further enriching its nuclear fuel stockpile on its own. — NYT

Dec. 31, 2009 According to senior U.S. officials, the Obama administration is preparing targeted sanctions against elite parts of the Iranian government, including those involved in the crackdown on Iranian protesters, and will likely press forward at the UN Security Council in February. - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Dec. 31, 2009 Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren states that the possible use of military action against Iran’s nuclear program is "not a subject of conversation" between Israel and the U.S., but rather the current focus is on imposing new sanctions in 2010. - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Dec. 30, 2009 An intelligence report obtained by the Associated Press suggests Iran is seeking to secretly import purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan. Iran is believed to be running out of domestic sources of the ore, a key ingredient to its uranium enrichment program. - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 29, 2009 Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak says Iran will have the technology to produce a nuclear bomb by early 2010, and be able to make a bomb the following year. Iran, meanwhile, has warned Israel it will retaliate if Israel strikes at Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure. - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 28, 2009 Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has reportedly discussed Iran's nuclear program with U.S. and Iranian officials, days after Iran's foreign minister said Tehran would consider swapping its nuclear material with the West in Turkey. - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 24, 2009 In a possible blow to U.S. efforts to muster UN Security Council support for a fresh round of sanctions against Iran, China says dialogue—and not economic pressure—is “the proper solution” to the nuclear standoff. - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 23, 2009 The speaker of Iran’s parliament and former nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, says his country will enrich uranium to 20 percent if it is unable to buy the fuel it needs for a Tehran research reactor. An UN-brokered deal to refine Iran’s low-enriched uranium outside the country for use in the reactor has not been embraced by Tehran; the White House says Iran has until Dec. 31 to “live up to its obligations” or face punitive action. - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 22, 2009 The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, said that military force must remain an option for dealing with Iran's nuclear program, but that an attack on the country's known nuclear facilities would yield "limited results" in stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons. - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Dec. 22, 2009 Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed a year-end deadline set by the Obama administration for Tehran to accept a UN-drafted deal to swap enriched uranium for nuclear fuel, and claimed his government is now "10 times stronger than last year." - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Dec. 22, 2009 Iran analyst Ray Takeyh says despite massive demonstrations in Iran following the death of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the country's opposition remains fragmented, and lacks a clear "nerve center." - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 21, 2009 In an interview with ABC News, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed as "fabricated" a newly disclosed memo some believe proves Iran has worked to develop a key component of a nuclear bomb. - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 18, 2009 Earlier this week The Times of London released a translated version of the mysterious memo that some scientists believe provides clear evidence Iran is working to perfect an atom bomb. - The Council on Foreign Relations — The Council on Foreign Relations

Dec. 16, 2009 Iran announced that it had test-fired an improved version of its most advanced missile capable of reaching Israel and parts of Europe, provoking immediate rebukes from the White House and leaders in Europe. — NYT

Dec. 16, 2009 American and European intelligence agencies have been trading theories about a spare, two-page document written in Persian that, if genuine, would strongly suggest that scientists in Iran were planning some of the final experiments needed to perfect an atom bomb. — NYT

Dec. 15, 2009 Events on the Iranian nuclear program seem to be playing out just as they did in a recent simulation game played at Harvard. Iran successfully played for time, while Moscow, or in the latest case, Beijing, prevented effective action, even as fresh revelations regarding Iran's nuclear program came to light.—William Tobey, senior fellow, Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. — NYT

Dec. 2, 2009 Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that his nation would move to produce uranium of much higher enrichment levels, comments almost certain to heighten tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. — NYT

Nov. 30, 2009 Iran angrily refused to comply with a demand by the United Nations nuclear agency to cease work on a once-secret nuclear fuel enrichment plant, and declared it would construct 10 more such plants. — NYT

Nov. 20, 2009 Iran has apparently rejected the IAEA plan to swap about three fourths of the low enriched uranium Iran has produced for fresh fuel for the Tehran research reactor, buying time for negotiators to seek a more comprehensive deal.—William Tobey, senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. — NYT

Nov. 16, 2009 Nuclear report on Iran arouses new suspicions about whether the country may have also concealed other nuclear factories. — NYT

Nov. 12, 2009 The time lines and design features associated with construction of Iran's once secret facility near Qom, intended for uranium enrichment, will afford the IAEA ample lines of inquiry. The key question is: how will Tehran respond? —William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — NYT

Nov. 11, 2009 Nuclear negotiations with Iran appear to be headed toward the equivalent of trench warfare with virtually every detail of even an interim agreement manifestly in Tehran’s interest an opportunity for haggling.—William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — NYT

Nov. 10, 2009 Iran's refusal to send its enriched uranium to Russia risks uniting the major powers against it.— Deepti Choubey, deputy director, nonproliferation program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. — NYT

Nov. 6, 2009 Julian Borger at the Guardian reports more information from the International Atomic Energy Agency’s secret dossier on Iran’s alleged efforts to master the construction of a nuclear weapon. Now, Borger reports that prior to 2004 Iran was working on an advanced system to detonate a nuclear weapon called a “two-point implosion device” that would allow for a narrower nuclear warhead, better able to fit atop an Iranian ballistic missile. —David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security — NYT

Nov. 2, 2009 World leaders pressed Iran to defuse an international standoff over its nuclear program by accepting a deal to ship its nuclear fuel abroad. — NYT

Oct. 30, 2009 Iran rejected the central element of a deal on its nuclear program, in the latest of a string of mixed signals on a plan to ship its uranium stockpile out of the country for processing. — NYT

Oct. 29, 2009 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hinted that Iran would accept a United Nations-sponsored plan to send the country’s uranium abroad for processing. — NYT

Oct. 28, 2009 An Iranian official said that even if the country agreed to a plan to ship its enriched uranium abroad for further processing, it would not ship it all at once, a position that could undermine the entire plan. — NYT

Oct. 27, 2009 Iran is apparently proposing that last week's deal on Iranian enriched uranium be "thoroughly reworked," calling into question whether the Vienna meeting was simply an attempt to deflect further sanctions after revelation of the secret enrichment facility at Qom. –-William H. Tobey, senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. — NYT

Oct. 27, 2009 If Iran sends out 80 percent of its low enriched uranium (LEU) within 2-3 months, the IAEA drafted fuel deal will still be a win-win for the U.S. and Iran. But if Iran sends out the LEU more slowly, the deal quickly becomes a loser for the U.S.. –- David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. — NYT

Oct. 27, 2009 Secretary Hillary Clinton called for vigorous enforcement of the Nonproliferation Treaty, including adopting automatic penalties for violation of safeguards agreements. However, it's hard to reconcile this policy with the new Vienna deal with Iran, as Iran has repeatedly failed to comply with its Safeguards Agreement. –- William H. Tobey, senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. — NYT

Oct. 26, 2009 Iran’s Parliament warned of U.S. efforts to “cheat” Iran out of the nuclear fuel; in the U.S. some are wary that Iran is setting a trap of endless negotiations. — NYT

Oct. 26, 2009 Iran missed its deadline on Oct. 23 to declare whether it would accept a nuclear deal that would ship much of its uranium to Russia for processing. — NYT

Oct. 26, 2009 Iranian negotiators have agreed to a draft deal that would delay the country’s ability to build a nuclear weapon for about a year. — NYT

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